Obama Ahead in Key Battleground States

Wall Street Journal, 09/23/08
By SARA MURRAY

Sen. Barack Obama holds a lead in four key battleground states, but it appears that the candidates’ handling of economic questions in coming debates could be the key to their fates there.

Sen. Obama holds slight leads over Sen. John McCain in Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado and Wisconsin, where Quinnipiac University has conducted separate, new polls for The Wall Street Journal and Washingtonpost.com. But his leads aren’t commanding, and all the states appear to be in play.

The best news for Sen. Obama in the new surveys may come in Colorado, where he has moved to a four percentage point lead, 49% to 45%, after being down by a percentage point in August. That means Colorado presents a good opportunity for Sen. Obama to swing a Republican state to his favor this year.

Meanwhile, Sen. McCain’s best shot at turning a blue state red might be Minnesota, where Sen. Obama leads by only a 47% to 45% margin, which falls within the poll’s margin of error. That’s a significantly reduced margin from the 17-point advantage Sen. Obama enjoyed in June in the state that hosted Sen. McCain’s nominating convention.

In Michigan, meanwhile, Sen. Obama holds a four-point edge, 48% to 44%. And his largest lead is in Wisconsin, where the race stands at 49% to 42%.

The findings suggest the parties’ widely watched national conventions didn’t produce a significant wave for either candidate in these crucial states.

But the poll results do suggest that the coming presidential debates could determine which of the candidates ultimately wins these Electoral College prizes. Roughly one in four voters say the debates could sway their opinion, leaving significant room for either of the candidates to pull ahead.

Each poll has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points, except for Colorado, which has a 2.6 point margin.

The polls were conducted from Sept. 14 through Sept. 21—in the midst of the one of the most tumultuous weeks in Wall Street’s history—and it is difficult to judge how the reverberations of those events will resonate with voters in the long run.

But it is clear that economic worries loom large. Voters from each state once again ranked the economy as their number one concern. And there were some hints that stands to benefit Sen. Obama unless Sen. McCain changes the dynamic between now and November.

John McCain

In three of the four states, voters say Sen. Obama understands the economy better than his Republican counterpart. In Minnesota, however, the candidates are dead even.

Similarly, voters in Minnesota are split on whether they would be better off a year from now if Sen. McCain were president versus Sen. Obama. Voters from every other state, by a minimum of five percentage points, say they would be better off with Sen. Obama.

“Common sense tells us those events definitely work to the benefit of Sen. Barack Obama,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The upside for Sen. McCain is the Wall Street crisis is taking place now instead of at the end of October, when it would likely be too late for him to make progress on economic issues.

“If Congress and the administration comes up with a solution that takes the story off the front page, that’s probably better for McCain,” Mr. Brown said.

Worries over the financial sector also likely will enhance sentiment for change in Washington, Mr. Brown said, which may be another plus for Sen. Obama. Voters in all four states agree he is most likely to bring change.

At the same time, though, voters in all states agree with Sen. McCain that an Obama administration likely would mean higher taxes, while most say a McCain administration would leaves taxes roughly the same.

Barack Obama

White women continue to shape up as one of the most important voting blocs this year, and could be the crucial ingredient for the Obama campaign. The candidates are statistically tied among white women in every state except Wisconsin, where Sen. Obama has an 11-point lead.

“If he can stay in the ballpark among white women, he can win the election,” Mr. Brown said.

Sen. McCain, however, has made progress with younger voters—those aged 18 to 34 years old—in Colorado, Michigan and Wisconsin. That could be a ripple effect of his choice as running mate Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who at age 44 is 28 years younger than Sen. McCain.

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